I suspect that LJ itself will continue, as it has ongoing revenue, but the improvements that it needs to turn itself into the successful site it could've been will now be significantly slowed, which puts the long term health of the site in danger. Not got time to do a full post, but here are some links:
- LJ cutbacks
- LiveJournal: The Russian Bear Slashes a Social Network
(ValleyWag and 'truth' are normally only vaguely associated, the numbers are completely wrong, but still) - Mat Bowles - Two scary tech stories
- synecdochic: FYI
- no_lj_ads: LJ in 2009 — The Grim Purge
- Archbishop of the Land of Me - Rest In Peace
- scrottie: LJ itself
- azurelunatic: Support means just that.
- ljbackup_dev: LJ Backup V1.1.0 Released!Hey all. Manag
- nhw: Time to back up, folks
- Made from Truth and Lies - Reasons to worry
- ljArchive
- Export Journal
I promised a 'how to' on backing up your journal and exporting it to other platforms, in order to write that I first need to do it myself fully and properly, so that'll happen later on (hopefully tonight, depends if I can get it all to work). In the meantime, some of the comments/posts linked abouve are from
![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small}
rahaeli/synecdochic, who used to be an LJ staffer but left to concentrate on her writing career (I got the impression she was asked to defend the indefensible once too often)—she's a good fiction writer FWIW. Last year, she announced that with a small number of others she'd be working on a fork of the Open Source Livejournal code (to be called Dreamwidth) to update it, make it compatible with modern servers and run a platform that'd be more community friendly in the way LJ "used to be". Many of the proposals she put forward were ones that echoed what I was looking for—crucially a separation between your 'reading' list and the people you trust to read your friends locked posts, as well as complete interoperability with other sites on the same codebase.That latter is interesting—if she/they (we?) can get it going, then different people could run Dreamwidth installations and you could still add people, let them read your secure entries, etc from your friends page, without much if any extra effort on your part. That could mean that anyone could pay for a server and run their own site. Drawback is that you'd need your own webserver, renting one of them is a minimum of £50 per month, much more for something decent.
But if enough people were to chip in, it'd be more than possible. In fact, it'd be more than viable, it'd possibly be a very good plan. There are a bunch of you reading this that know a lot more about the backend side of this sort of thing than me—we'd need to work to set it up, and then install updates, etc. Almost certainly viable with enough people, so, well...
Poll #1326311 Dreamwidth UK install?
Open to: All, detailed results viewable to: All, participants: 50
Interested in paying £20ish per year for a share of a UK based Dreamwidth/LJ installation?
View Answers
Yes, regardless of what happens to LJ
13 (26.0%)
Yes, if LJ is likely to get worse 8 (16.0%)
Possibly, I'd need to think about it 17 (34.0%)
Only if LJ dies a death 14 (28.0%)
No 3 (6.0%)
Able and interested in working on and contributing to a UK based Dreamwidth/LJ installation?
View Answers
Yes, regardless of what happens to LJ 5 (11.1%)
Yes, if LJ is likely to get worse 1 (2.2%)
Possibly, I'd need to think about it 11 (24.4%)
Only if LJ dies a death 8 (17.8%)
No 22 (48.9%)
Introspection
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If you decide to keep reading, please do say hello, let me know where you found me from, etc. I promise not to bite (well, unless you want me to...)
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Comments
I've saved all my entres as XML, CSV and LJarchive, so I feel covered!
I would be interested in Dreamwidth. Was the second part of the poll for programmers/techie types only?
I haven't really got any coding ability—a fair bit of coding skill, but no actual talent. Enough to talk to people who've got lots and then translate it back into English though.
The big issue of course is I've no idea how much time it'd require, I know people do run LJ installs as hobbies but I've no idea how well or for how many.
Actually, that may be overkill, but I suspect you'd need something more than OpenId.
I gather the plan is to do it using open APIs (LJ already has loads, a few more wouldn't hurt), but the exact details are beyond me—if it works, I can sell it.
I'll see how it goes.
I pay just under £180 a year for a virtual server (might not be beefy enough to run Dreamwidth, mind, but I don't know how much memory/disk/etc it would need).
From what D's said in a few places, they're looking at needing their own dedicated to start with, and possibly moving to multiples if they get enough users.
Given it needs to be dedicated with some unique specs, the prices I've seen look about right, if we were seriously looking into it I'd do some proper work, but I'd rather pay above the odds for a decent service if we get enough interest. Of course, given it'd be a group project regardless it wouldn't be down to me.
To clarify my poll vote however, I'm up for sticking money into a Dreamwidth setup when Dreamwidth is ready, rather than when it is wanted (ie if/when LJ crumbles). I suspect you need to find out how many people are willing to contribute to a setup that isn't actually working, and for everyone else the levels of functionality they would expect before they got on board.
And to post in a way that's visible on Livejournal, not just as link to my post on the server, and post friendslocked posts that friends on Livejournal can read?
If so, then maybe.
If/when federation features are implemented, I'd very much like to be part of running the UK part of a DW-based federation of sites.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co
If it was going down the tube with the possibility of another buyout, (this time at a more sensible price), maybe there's the possibility of a users-buyout? With the idea of returning it to the original no-advertising model. The trouble with the likes of Dreamwidth, is they're never ready when you suddenly need them!
I'd have no problem if they'd said "we're moving design and development to the existing SUP team who've been working on the Russia site for a few years, and project X will now be handled by person Y, etc" and had a decent handover.
As it is, they've fired all the people that were working on the projects I really liked (usability, domain mapping) with no notice or transition.
A user buyout would be cool, and a real step in the right direction, but I doubt SUP want to actually sell—growth in Russia is still big, and they're doing stuff in the UK and India as well.
Hmm, wonder if the usernames link to the tricky domain as well? Test.
Edit: yes, they do. Not had the public launch yet, but Rentoul is the political editor of one of the main UK dailies, they've got a persistent subdomain that works even for lj user= shortcuts.
That's a really good development. By
Edited at 2009-01-07 08:11 pm (UTC)
Though if the real reason is plain economics, then a buyout might be possible, as not even Russian IT businesses can go on spilling red ink indefinitely.
I like the Dreamwidth approach though - LJ's everywhere talking to each other. Needing dedicating servers is, I think, a killer for it though. What would be the optimum number of users per, err, Dreamwidth site? There must be a point where adding new users won't lower the average cost per user by much. When does it start to level out?
Undoubtedly, much lower GDPp/c, and significantly lower living costs than in SF, one of the most expensive places in the US.
Yup, but the odds are that the new (Dutch) CEO, coming from a finance background, is keeping an eye on the bottom line very closely—the new head of LJinc is the sales/marketing person, not from the product team, that's also significant.
At a minimum of 500GBP PA for a server, you'd need 20 people at £25 PA just to cover basic costs, let alone any staff or support time. The more users you've got, the more likely you are to need at least one employee.
You're not likely to see real cost scaling until you get into several hundreds of users, unless the users also act as volunteers at a very high level (which is what I'd hope for, not too many Support people needed as everyone helps each other).
I'd guess you'd be looking at one or two setups per country outside the US maximum, costs just don't scale enough.
Still, if there's quite a few such servers scattered around the world, they could collectively pay for support. Though that creates a system where a few people have a lot of power over the system.
Any estimate about the maximum number of journals you could get per server? If say journals only, with media hosting being considered an optional extra?